Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-30 2.620815 3.581996 4.949088 7.106166 1.056445e+01 1.616339e+01 26.547800
2025-04-06 1.545886 2.401182 3.846124 6.659191 1.254448e+01 2.588880e+01 65.122960
2025-04-13 0.972161 1.655464 2.967737 5.989997 1.396915e+01 3.917546e+01 167.004788
2025-04-20 0.708763 1.315434 2.634166 6.244645 1.862306e+01 7.847285e+01 828.988968
2025-04-27 0.558701 1.124863 2.513694 7.066425 2.814606e+01 2.108986e+02 17339.870272
2025-05-04 0.454412 0.984953 2.442220 8.160819 4.519974e+01 7.830950e+02 NaN
2025-05-11 0.363281 0.834537 2.253132 8.752422 6.697744e+01 3.581387e+03 NaN
2025-05-18 0.281589 0.672823 1.927574 8.360364 8.315898e+01 1.661091e+04 NaN
2025-05-25 0.218087 0.535935 1.603268 7.557690 9.319647e+01 9.518857e+04 NaN
2025-06-01 0.184510 0.472224 1.505906 8.067312 1.430259e+02 8.832999e+08 NaN
2025-06-08 0.157503 0.417743 1.410984 8.525036 2.221738e+02 NaN NaN
2025-06-15 0.138081 0.379840 1.362506 9.390564 3.966138e+02 NaN NaN
2025-06-22 0.120143 0.342005 1.299725 10.225821 7.631081e+02 NaN NaN
2025-06-29 0.100850 0.292506 1.147881 9.747265 1.061049e+03 NaN NaN
2025-07-06 0.084209 0.247174 0.990266 8.842369 1.265075e+03 NaN NaN
2025-07-13 0.074691 0.224876 0.942018 9.402079 2.690556e+03 NaN NaN
2025-07-20 0.068464 0.212790 0.943594 10.924934 1.034382e+04 NaN NaN
2025-07-27 0.063371 0.203315 0.955466 12.973777 8.532919e+04 NaN NaN
2025-08-03 0.057549 0.188829 0.925296 14.169290 1.257457e+06 NaN NaN
2025-08-10 0.050781 0.168239 0.839538 13.566536 1.000676e+07 NaN NaN
2025-08-17 0.044377 0.147502 0.740617 12.191379 2.679760e+07 NaN NaN
2025-08-24 0.040885 0.138420 0.719858 13.190616 NaN NaN NaN
2025-08-31 0.037702 0.129754 0.696471 14.101734 NaN NaN NaN